Prepared 9/16/2026. Every figure has a source. UNVERIFIED marks anything I could not confirm. "LLAYD file" means a document in research/source_text/, most often the Bowery Valuation appraisal of 1816 N. Charles (File No. 2300026257, effective 5/19/2023). That appraisal is the best property-specific market evidence available, but it is three years old.

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KEY NUMBERS TO USE IN THE MODEL

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1. Residential rent evidence

1a. Market-level data

1b. Property-level comparables (asking rents)

1c. What this means for the $1,800–$2,300 range

• 2BR / 2BA of 850–1,100 SF with luxury finishes: $1,900–$2,300 is supportable. Nelson Kohl gets $2,255 for 874 SF two blocks away, and the Mount Vernon 2BR averages are $1,912–$1,961.
• 1BR at $1,800+ is not supported by nearby comps. Nelson Kohl, a newer building with amenities, asks $1,425–$1,500. Only The Fitzgerald, with a full amenity package, gets $1,988+.
• A base-case 1BR rent of $1,500–$1,650 is defensible to a BDC or NIIF underwriter.
• Grow it at 2%/yr from a 2026 base to the stabilization year.
• The prior submission used $1,450 for 1BR (Exhibit E), which matches the market. Raising every unit to $1,800–$2,300 without unit-size and finish justification will draw questions.
• Recommendation: use a unit-by-unit rent roll with square footage, and show $1,800–$2,300 as the "upside / 2BR-heavy" scenario in the sensitivity table.

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2. Ground-floor commercial rent evidence (N. Charles corridor)

Converting the BDC target to $/SF

• Conclusion. Bowery's 2023 $22.50/SF, grown 3%/yr to a 2028 stabilization, is about $26/SF. That supports ≈$3,250/mo for a 1,500 SF storefront but only ≈$2,170/mo for 1,000 SF.
• Use a $/SF-driven commercial rent roll.
• Put $3,200–$3,800 in the upside case unless you have signed LOIs.
• LOIs from committed tenants (e.g., the LLAYD Small Business Hub users) would be the strongest evidence for BDC.
• Lease structure. Modified gross is the most common structure for small Midtown retail (Bowery). Budget landlord-paid taxes and insurance on commercial space unless leases are NNN.
• TI and leasing costs. No local source found (UNVERIFIED). Budget a vanilla-box fit-out in hard costs, plus 1–2 months free rent and a 4–6% leasing commission as a placeholder.

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3. Vacancy assumptions

• Recommendation: 7% residential vacancy plus 1% credit loss, and 10% commercial.
• Fix in the prior Exhibit E.
• It layered 10% vacancy plus 5% collection loss, which is too punitive.
• It then grew the vacancy dollars at 3%/yr instead of taking a percentage of gross revenue each year.
• It also summed only the deductions into "Total Effective Revenue."
• Recompute EGI as GPR × (1 − vacancy − credit loss).

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4. Operating expenses

Bowery stabilized pro forma for 1816 (6 × 1BR + 2 commercial; 5,760 SF NRA; LLAYD file):

Other benchmarks - MD DHCD 2026 guide. OpEx including taxes (excluding reserves) of $4,000–$9,000 per unit per year; reserves at least $300 per unit per year; operating reserve of 3–6 months. Waivers are available for projects under 40 units. — https://dhcd.maryland.gov/HousingDevelopment/Documents/rhf/2026-Multifamily-Rental-Financing-Program-Guide.pdf (§§3.9.3–3.9.5) - Insurance trend. Multifamily insurance premiums rose more than 75% in real terms from 2019 to 2024, and about 33% in one recent year (≈$180 per unit). These are national figures. — https://www.matthews.com/market_insights/rising-multifamily-insurance-costs-in-2025 - Inflate the Bowery 2023 insurance figure (+25–40%) → ≈$1.00/SF. - Line items the prior Exhibit E is missing. It modeled R&M at 5% of residential rent and left insurance, utilities, and management blank. Add every line; BDC's Exhibit E template lists them.

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5. Cap rates

• Recommendation: 7.50% going-in, 8.00% exit, 7.0–8.5% sensitivity.
• Small mixed-use sales data. Harbor Stone Q2 2025 lists small Station North and Mount Vernon trades (e.g., North Commons, 16 units, 1808–1816 St. Paul St., Feb 2025), but prices were not disclosed. — https://harborstoneadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Baltimore-City-Q2-2025.pdf

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6. Interest rates and lending terms

CDFI and public lenders

Hard money (Maryland / Baltimore)

• Recommendation for a last-resort bridge: 12% interest-only, 2.5 points, 12-month term with a 6-month extension (+1 pt), ≤70% of ARV / ≤85% of cost.
• Model risk: LLAYD's actual 15% cost (see Nextres row above).
• Also flag in the model: the prior Exhibit D used a 14.9% primary loan rate, and a "financing fees (14%)" line. Both signal distress to BDC. Replacing them with NIIF at 5% is the central fix.

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7. Property tax

Fix in the prior Exhibit E: it applied taxes to a flat $1.4M value with no CHAP credit and no growth. Model the city tax as follows: - Base: pre-rehab assessment × 2.248%. - Plus: (post-rehab assessment − base) × 2.248% × (1 − CHAP credit %). - Plus: state tax on the full assessment. - Reassess every 3 years.

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8. Construction cost for gut rehab of historic rowhouses

Recommendation - Hard costs: $250/SF of GBA for a full historic gut. That covers new MEP, sprinklers for mixed-use R-2 over M/B, a new roof and windows to CHAP standards, masonry repointing, lead and asbestos abatement, and vanilla-box commercial. - Ranges: $200/SF (lean) to $325/SF (4-story with a new top-floor addition or elevator). - Contingency and escalation: add 12.5% hard-cost contingency and ≈4%/yr escalation to the construction midpoint. - Check against the prior submission: it carried only $1.2M hard costs for 1820. At $250/SF that covers ≈4,800 SF of GBA. Confirm 1820's GBA (not stated in the RFP; land is 1,655 SF on 4 floors plus basement, so likely ≈5,000–6,600 SF gross). UNVERIFIED. - Where to put the real numbers: Tyjuan Amor's trade bids (PROJECT_HUB bid packages in the LLAYD files) should replace these benchmarks in the budget. Keep the benchmarks as the "reasonableness" check BDC asked for.