BDC resubmission · September 2026
Sensitivity & stress tests
Every scenario re-runs the full model with the NIIF loan held at the base amount. The capacity column shows what NIIF could lend if it re-sized the loan for that case.
| Scenario | Yr 1 NOI | Consol. DSCR | NIIF DSCR | NIIF DSCR @ market | BDC gap | NIIF capacity | Levered IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case — target rents | $376,502 | 1.45x | 1.34x | 1.27x | $943,874 | $2,724,000 | 11.6% |
| Market-rent case (comparable-supported rents) | $326,663 | 1.26x | 1.27x | 1.27x | $943,549 | $2,598,000 | 0.5% |
| Target residential rents −10% | $336,490 | 1.30x | 1.19x | 1.27x | $943,116 | $2,429,000 | 3.3% |
| Commercial rents −25% & 20% commercial vacancy | $328,622 | 1.27x | 1.21x | 1.23x | $943,191 | $2,458,000 | 1.1% |
| Interest rates +200 bps (NIIF 7.0%, 1816 9.25%) | $376,502 | 1.21x | 1.11x | 1.05x | $1,011,387 | $2,297,000 | 5.3% |
| Hard costs +15% | $376,502 | 1.43x | 1.34x | 1.27x | $1,484,425 | $2,724,000 | 7.5% |
| No historic tax credit equity (federal or state) | $376,502 | 1.45x | 1.34x | 1.27x | $1,819,874 | $2,724,000 | 5.7% |
| Expenses +15% | $344,314 | 1.33x | 1.23x | 1.16x | $954,938 | $2,497,000 | 4.5% |
| Exit cap rate 9.0% | $376,502 | 1.45x | 1.34x | 1.27x | $943,874 | $2,724,000 | 8.6% |
| Market rents + rates +100 bps + costs +10% | $326,663 | 1.13x | 1.16x | 1.16x | $1,337,438 | $2,520,000 | n/a |
| No furnished premium in market rents | $376,502 | 1.45x | 1.34x | 1.15x | $943,874 | $2,503,000 | 11.6% |
| Option — $150/mo furnished amenity fee per apartment | $407,282 | 1.57x | 1.44x | 1.38x | $944,435 | $2,943,000 | 16.3% |
| Upside — NIIF also refinances 1816 at 5.0% | $376,502 | 1.53x | 1.34x | 1.27x | $943,874 | $2,724,000 | 12.9% |
NIIF DSCR — residential rent change × NIIF interest rate
▼ = below the 1.25x covenant (target-rent basis; loan held at $2,724,000).
| Rent change / NIIF rate | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20% | 1.16 ▼ | 1.10 ▼ | 1.05 ▼ | 1.00 ▼ | 0.95 ▼ | 0.87 ▼ | 0.79 ▼ |
| -10% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.19 ▼ | 1.13 ▼ | 1.08 ▼ | 0.99 ▼ | 0.90 ▼ |
| -5% | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.26 | 1.20 ▼ | 1.15 ▼ | 1.05 ▼ | 0.96 ▼ |
| +0% | 1.48 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.27 | 1.21 ▼ | 1.11 ▼ | 1.01 ▼ |
| +5% | 1.56 | 1.48 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.28 | 1.17 ▼ | 1.07 ▼ |
| +10% | 1.64 | 1.56 | 1.48 | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.23 ▼ | 1.12 ▼ |
Test your own cases in the interactive dashboard: sliders for rents, vacancy, rates, costs, cap rates, the 1820 price, equity, the bond bill, and credit toggles.